Here's Why SpaceX Stock Suddenly Took A Dive
出典: Forbes
SpaceX shares fell sharply this week, dropping more than 6% on Thursday and extending a steep decline that began after the company announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor. Since hitting a high above $225 on Tuesday, the stock has shed roughly 20% of its value. This selloff erased approximately $620 billion from SpaceX's market capitalization, pulling it down from about $2.99 trillion to $2.37 trillion and dropping the company from fourth to seventh place among the world's most valuable firms.
The Cursor deal, which represents approximately 3.4% dilution of SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO valuation, raised concerns among analysts about the impact on existing shareholders. Morningstar responded by lowering its fair value estimate for SpaceX shares from $63 to $62, warning of 'sizable dilution.' The firm cautioned that even in a best-case scenario—where SpaceX's AI revenue improves significantly—shares would be priced around $169, still below current trading levels at the time of the announcement.
Despite the downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about the Cursor acquisition. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan praised the deal, arguing it creates a mutually beneficial arrangement: Cursor gains access to SpaceX's considerable computing infrastructure, while SpaceX acquires Cursor's AI technology, engineering talent, proprietary training data, and existing user base. Horan raised his price target for SpaceX to $250 by year-end, up from a previous projection of $190, suggesting the market's negative reaction may be an overreaction.
The stock's volatility was further amplified by the debut of SpaceX options trading on Tuesday, which introduced new tools for investors to bet against the company. Susquehanna analyst Chris Murphy noted that option trades implied a 15% probability that SpaceX shares could lose half their value over the next three months. Meanwhile, investor enthusiasm at launch had been extraordinary: buyers poured $369.8 million into SpaceX shares over its first three trading sessions—more than quadruple the amount invested in Nvidia over a comparable period.
The decline also took a significant toll on CEO Elon Musk's personal fortune. His net worth dropped by an estimated $67.8 billion to approximately $1.2 trillion, according to Forbes, retreating from a record high above $1.4 trillion reached during the stock's three-day rally. Morningstar had warned before the IPO that SpaceX appeared 'significantly overvalued,' noting its market worth relied heavily on technologies described as novel and untested. Analysts also compared SpaceX's potential trading behavior to Tesla's well-known volatility.
日本語訳
スペースXの株価は今週急落し、AIコーディングスタートアップ「カーソル」を総額600億ドルの株式交換で買収すると発表した後、木曜日には6%以上下落した。火曜日に225ドルを超える高値をつけてから約20%下落し、時価総額は約2.99兆ドルから2.37兆ドルへと大幅に減少。世界の大企業ランキングでも4位から7位へと後退した。
このカーソル買収は、スペースXのIPO評価額1.77兆ドルに対して約3.4%の株式希薄化をもたらすとされ、既存株主への影響を懸念するアナリストの声が上がった。モーニングスターは適正株価の見積もりを63ドルから62ドルに引き下げ、「相当規模の希薄化」を警告。AI収益が改善する楽観的シナリオでも株価は169ドル程度にとどまると指摘した。
一方、カーソル買収に楽観的な見方を示すアナリストもいる。オッペンハイマーのティモシー・ホラン氏は今回の取引を高く評価し、スペースXはカーソルのAI技術・人材・学習データ・ユーザー基盤を取得でき、カーソル側はスペースXの大規模な計算インフラを活用できると述べた。同氏は年末の目標株価を従来の190ドルから250ドルに引き上げており、市場の否定的な反応は過剰だと示唆している。
株価の乱高下は、火曜日に始まったスペースXオプション取引の開始によってさらに増幅された。サスケハナのクリス・マーフィー氏は、オプション取引のデータから今後3か月以内に株価が半値以下になる確率が15%あると指摘した。一方、上場時の投資家の熱狂は際立っており、最初の3営業日で3億6,980万ドルが流入し、同期間のエヌビディアへの投資額の4倍以上に達した。
株価下落はCEOイーロン・マスク氏の個人資産にも大きな打撃を与えた。フォーブスの推計によると、資産は約678億ドル減少して約1.2兆ドルとなり、3日間の株高で達した1.4兆ドル超の最高値から後退した。モーニングスターはIPO前から「著しく過大評価されている」と警告しており、アナリストらはスペースXの株価変動がテスラに似た激しいものになる可能性も指摘している。
重要単語・フレーズ
- selloffnoun
A rapid and widespread sale of securities, commodities, or other assets, typically causing a sharp drop in prices.
和訳: 売り浴びせ、急激な売り
A sudden selloff in tech stocks rattled investors who had expected steady gains throughout the quarter.
- dilutionnoun
In finance, a reduction in the ownership percentage of existing shareholders caused by the issuance of new shares.
和訳: 希薄化(株式の)
The company's decision to issue new shares to fund the merger resulted in significant dilution for long-term investors.
- market capitalizationnoun
The total market value of a company's outstanding shares, calculated by multiplying the share price by the total number of shares.
和訳: 時価総額
After the product recall, the firm's market capitalization fell by billions within a single trading session.
- fair value estimatephrase
An analyst's calculation of what a stock or asset should theoretically be worth based on financial modeling and fundamentals.
和訳: 適正価値の見積もり
The brokerage lowered its fair value estimate for the retailer after weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings were reported.














